Ten years ago search engine Alta Vista was the biggest and most awesome ruler of the Internet.
Then something happened. Two research students at Stanford University made what today seems like a pretty small paradigm shift in search: Instead of mainly relying on page-content analysis to rank search results they created a search engine that also takes network structure (e.g. linking) into account when prioritising search results.
On the 14th of September 1997 the domain name Google.com was registered and the rest, as the saying goes, is history.
But it’s not.
Google isn’t going to be forever. They are going to succumb to the same mighty force that put them in their present position: evolution.
As unimaginably as it may seem today it will happen.
And here is why:
In the last 10 years Google have not substantially improved their search algorithm. They may have made a few refinements, but they haven’t been pushing to make yet another paradigm shift in search. A shift that will be necessary to stay ahead of the game. A shift that hundreds of other companies are currently working on and getting closer to delivering.
Thinking about it initially seems strange: A company (Google) that spits out so many innovations on a monthly basis; yet they can’t seem to move their search technology further...
The problem for Google is the following: They have one cash cow: Adwords. But
Adwords is reliant on searchers NOT finding what they are looking for in Google.
Imagine that Google provided perfect results: They always provided you with a list of the best options for you. Then there would be little or no incentive to click on the advertisements on the search page.
So, the better the Google search results, the less clicking on ads on the right side. Less clicking because there is no need to – the generic results already lists the best options for you. But also less ad-clicking because the better Google’s search results are, the less credible the propositions in the ads are.
In that lies Google’s main problem. If they innovate to stay ahead of the search game – they lower their revenue.
It may be inconceivable but someday in the not too distant future, a site is going to come along that delivers better search results by one or more order of magnitudes. The search results will be so good, that each of us will instantly loose our competitive edge if we don’t use it. It will be a repetition of the Alta Vista-to-Google transition over again. The only difference will be that, due to the extreme connectedness of people today, the switch will be completed in a much shorter period of time.
So what will the next generation search look like? Good question. I have some ideas but honestly – I’m not sure. But I’m sure it will happen. Evolution always catches up.